A Flat Tire in the Same Place? What are the Odds?

While unloading my bike after the last ride I noticed my rear tire had gone down on the way home. There was a chunk of orange mulch still lodged in the tire. At least it was easy to find.

After pulling the tube out I realized the new puncture was in the same place as the last one! One centimeter from the hole I received two months ago.

This got me thinking about the odds. Rather than waste brain cells doing the math of the surface area of tire and getting an actual number, I ponded on ways that these odds could have happened.

I know what you are thinking "you did not get the splinter out from the last flat!" I thought of that. But here is the evidence, you decide:

1.  If I had left the mulch in from the last flat chances are that I would have had another flat soon... I've been riding for over two months since my last flat. I suppose it is possible.

2. the mulch was the strange oranged color of the mulch on the side of the greenway I rode last. I received the first flat on a trail with no mulch.

3. I have a ritual for changing flats. I remove the original obstruction from the outside of the tire (if it is still there), then visually inspect both the outside and inside of the tire for others. Then I run my fingers around the inside of the tire hoping to feel anything my eyes didn't catch. 

I can think of only two ways this happened: 

Dumb luck (you are right... I did not get the mulch out.) And it was in the tread in a way that it was pushed in (only when coming in contact with a rock) but rebounded back out when not being pushed it in. I wouldn't have seen or felt it inside. AND dumb luck that I had not hit anything that pushed it in for over two months.

OR dumb luck... another simple flat.

Either way, dumb luck played a big part in getting these two flats so close together. Gosh, I can think of better outcomes for being this "lucky!"